19.4.07

2007 Brew Crew Predictions

The Brewers are one of those teams one would call the exception to the rule. Despite a very modest payroll, Milwaukee showed in 2006 that they will be able to compete for the National League Central title. The Brewers ranked near the bottom of the NL in pitching, hitting, and defense last season due to some costly injuries yet they were able to finish a close fourth in the deep Central division. With the prospects of a solid starting rotation, and growing offensive threats in Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, and Ricky Weeks, this is a team which can give the Cubs and Cards a run for their money.

With Ben Sheets the Brewers have themselves a 20-win caliber pitcher, and with Chris Capuano they have one of the best young lefties in the game. Last season, he only tallied one victory in the second half which really cost this team to move up in the standings. Jeff Suppan comes over from the Cards landing the biggest contract in Brewers team history. He's not worth all those chips, but he will fill one more void in this staff. Dave Bush led the Brew Crew in wins last season, but it was only 12. Vargas also tallied 12 wins for the Diamondbacks last season which was his career high. All five starters in Milwaukee's rotation have 15-win potential. That's the upside. This is the reality. Sheets has never won more than 12 games. As I already mentioned, Capuano fell off in the second half of last season. Suppan has a record of just five games over .500 for his career. In my opinion, the upside outweighs the pessimism here and the Brewers have the makings of a great rotation.

Offensively, Rickie Weeks leads off for the Brewers. He hit over .300 within the Central Division last year and I expect this guy to steal over 30 bases out of that lead off spot. J.J. Hardy is a very weak hitter in the two hole. Bill Hall was a big surprise in 2006 while, Koskie and Jenkins had disappointing seasons. The guy I look to for a breakout season is Prince Fielder. He set a Brewer rookie record by slugging 28 homeruns last season. He is very young and will get better and better each year.

One of the Brewers biggest concerns has to be their defense. Hall makes the move from short to center field ala Robin Yount, but I don't foresee the same success. Get ready for Hall's power numbers to suffer at the plate with the extra pressure there is on outfielders to swing the biggest bats.

Last season was Milwaukee's big chance to take the division when just 84 wins would have won it, but injuries prevented them from doing so. It's going to take a few more wins than that to get it done in 2007 and I don't think Milwaukee has it in them. My best guess is that Milwaukee will be a solid team to back in 2007 from a bettor's perspective though. The perception is that they are still a bad team. The starting pitching staff is going to surprise you and we'll take advantage backing these boys, especially at home where they won their most games in 2006 since 1992.

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