The “Sweat Spot” of Tournament Strategy

Forget the original Kobayashi Naru scenario of calling an all-in with pocket Kings in the first round of the WSOP. Let’s raise the bar on our scenario…

How is it that you can play a perfect tournament, only to eventually get hit with a beat that sends you home? Believe it or not, it is closely tied to why so many online players have been dominating tournaments in the last 3 years. There is a new Axiom of poker, “In order to survive being right, you must also have your opponent covered”.

Let’s say I play perfect poker and I only get my money in the pot when I am 4-1 or better to win. Sounds great doesn’t it? But, is it really? Let’s explore shall we?

TWENTY percent of the time, my opponent is going to get that King on the river and beat me with his “3 outs twice”. And with the blinds going up, you need to invest in pots where you are 4-1 to win. And 1 out of 5 times, you need to be able to survive losing a big pot. Which means having enough chips to survive it.

Now, how do you accumulate that type of insurance stack? Unfortunately, the only was is to take risks when you are NOT a big favorite. The new breed of internet players do this. And here is the funny thing, it works because of the QUANTITY of players, not quality. If 5 people act stupid, 1 of them is sure to benefit. And if 50 of them are stupid, and you are playing smart, as they bust out to other stupid players, you are not the one accumulating the chips. The guy getting all his money in behind with middle pair and getting lucky is.

So, you play a perfect game and make the bubble as the short stack. Or simply take a “bad beat” and lose your stack at a critical time where you got your money in way ahead.

So, can you compensate for this by playing a lot more hands in early rounds? Some players do this. The “accumulate chips or go home early” strategy. In effect, moving down to their level.

Here is what separates the good from the great. Being able to extract someone’s stack while being marginally ahead and taking them along for the ride (especially on a draw). Which, ironically, SMACKS IN THE FACE the old adage that you can’t do this in tournament games where survival is at the utmost. You need to take advantage of the edges that are presented to you post-flop. This is why in the “middle rounds” of the tournament, its important to bet (whenever you are ahead) the right amount. The amount that dictates that your opponent is wrong if he calls you, yet is not large enough to scare him off. You need to bet the “sweat spot”.