Gold Looking Golden, For Now

They are down to just three tables at the WSOP Main Event. Jamie Gold has a commanding lead -- not unlike where Raymer sat in 2004 when they were approaching the final table. Allen Cunningham (at 13th) is easily the most recognizable name left of the remaining 27. Very different from a year ago, when there were quite a few familiar names still left at this stage (including Mike Matusow [1st in chips w/27 to go], Phil Ivey [2nd], Greg Raymer [5th], Minh Ly [12th], Tim Phan [15th], and Sean Sheikhan [26th]). Of course, all of the better-known players other than Mike the Mouth would be done by the time they reached the final table.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the chip counts from last year to what we have entering today. Click on the picture to see a Word document that compares the final 27 from both years. Besides chip counts, I’ve also noted the percentage of chips in play each player held/holds, as well as each player's “M” ratio (as detailed in Harrington on Hold ’em, Vol. 2). The “M” ratio is the amount of chips divided by the blinds plus the antes for each round. Harrington suggests that if your “M” falls below 10, you no longer are able to maneuver very much and thus must make a move quickly. It looks like close to half of the remaining players are either in this situation or close to it, so there ought to be a lot of action fairly early today.

Notice how last year the nine who made the final table were all among the top 13 with 27 left. Only a couple of the short stacks managed to move up significantly before bowing out (Sean Sheikhan from 26th to 11th and Ayhan Alsancak from 27th to 10th), while only a couple of the big stacks busted out quickly (Ivey and Raymer). This would suggest that we certainly should expect folks like Jamie Gold, Erik Freberg, David Einhorn, and Rhett Butler to be at the final table Thursday. You never know, of course. Just ’cause it’s glittering today doesn’t mean it’ll be gold tomorrow . . . .